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A peek at a sample play and our detailed analysis.
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Below is a complete sample of actual play detail from one of our recommendations (EELN).
This sample analysis follows our purchase and sale of EELN between Novemeber 2002 and January 2003.
This play was exited for a 28% gain.
Every play we recommend is published with:
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In depth fundamental/technical analysis |
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Sample
| Symbol | Side | Entry
Price | Stop
Price | Exit
Price | Gain
(Loss) | Gain
% | Entry
Date | Exit
Date | Exit
Note | | | EELN |
Long
| $1.60 | $2.10 | $2.05 | $0.45 | 28.12 | Nov 22, 2002
10:39 AM | Jan 27, 2003
09:34 AM | Stopped out, but bouncing off 50 day-MA. | |
 | Detailed Analysis
(Most recent comments at the top)
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Overbought...
 | Jan 23, 2003 | 02:41 PM |
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We would consider taking some profit at these levels, and buying at the $2.40 and $2.20 level. We think odds favor a near-term (1 week) underperformed on EELN as traders sell the good news and the gains slow down.
Overall, we thought earnings were great. The Conference Call, which included a 16 page slideshow was one of the better calls I have seen. EELN clearly has a superior system to LendingTree.com, and E-Loan deserves to trade at the same if not higher multiples than LendingTree. Another thing we confirmed from the call, was E-Loan has a supply issue. E-Loan has been so successful in the 4th quarter, it has seen demand exceed supply. As E-Loan changes plans to become more aggressive at handling it's new demand, we feel earnings will continue to exceed estimates and stock price will continue to climb. We remain confident that in 3-6 months E-Loan will be trading above $5 a share. |
Earnings thoughts
| Jan 23, 2003 | 09:36 AM |
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E-Loan came in at 1 cent above analyst estimates, and 1 cent below our estimates for Q4. In addition to beating estimates, E-Loan raised full year 2003 estimates. We are waiting for a conference call at 10:30 to hear how hear more about the E-Loans estimates for 2003. Overall, we felt earnings were solid last night and that E-Loan should trade higher today.
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Analysts expect the best
| Jan 21, 2003 | 12:58 PM |
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Looking at the most recent estimates for E-Loan show that analysts are expecting the company to come in at 7 cents per share profit for the fourth quarter. E-Loan in December announced they would exceed estimates of 5 cents per share and would come in at 6-7 cents. Most the time analysts like to give the companies they cover a one cent buffer from earnings. We see the analysts expecting 7 cents a share as a very bullish sign that E-Loan should exceed already increased guidence. I believe E-Loan will come in at 9 cents per share profit for Q4. 4 cents better than their original estimates. Earnings are tomorrow, and we intend to hold and see what the market thinks of the earnings. At 10X Q4 estimates, puts EELN's price at $2.80. We feel EELN deserves a 20X multiple given the high growth they are experancing which puts our target price at $5.60.
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EELN continues to rock
| Jan 15, 2003 | 02:59 PM |
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The market is weak, yet the buying continues on EELN. We believe EELN will be above $3 a share by the time they report earnings.
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New 52 week high
| Jan 8, 2003 | 10:02 AM |
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EELN continues to move nicely on the uptrend. I am not sure how much more fuel EELN has to the near-term, however I believe EELN will end February above $3 a share.
When comparing EELN to TREE, one has to believe EELN price should be around $4-$5 a share. I expect to see EELN there in the next couple of months and that is the levles that we will probably close the EELN pick at. This will be a huge winner in 2003.
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more good news
| Dec 9, 2002 | 10:26 AM |
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| Today Eloan raised guidance. A move we fully expected. We still believe Eloan will beat estimates by 1-2 cents per share come January and we still believe there is a lot more upside to Eloan. We would continue to hold shares of Eloan and look for more upside in the next 4 weeks.
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Off to the races...
| Dec 3, 2002 | 01:41 AM |
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| Breakout above $2 and beyond. Last week insiders (institutions and management) in eLoan bought back more than 6 million shares to take up the remaining stake Charles Schwab had in the company. We believe this move was a very positive one.
First off, E-Loan is way undervalued. Trading at a P/E of 12.79. This is very cheap for a dot com. Secondly, I believe they will increase guidence as the refinancing pace is higher than expected. We easily believe Eloan can see $4 a share by December end and would reccomend a position on this stock today.
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Dot Com Rocket
| Nov 22, 2002 | 10:51 AM |
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|  | Over the last 2 weeks, we have seen many of the dot coms making 52 week highs. SOHU, AMZN, CHINA, EBAY and others have been unstoppable lately as it might be time to jump on the dot com rally.
Today LendingTree.com raised guidence by 8 cents per share, as the market for loans continues to be very strong as low interest rates spurs buying. We believe Eloan is worth far closer to $5-$7 a share. Given it's numbers compared to LendingTree.com. We would be buyers of Eloan under $2 a share.
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